Standard Chartered Bank forecasts GDP growth of 6.7 per cent for 2025. However, the bank predicts that the first half of the year will experience a stronger growth rate of 7.5 per cent.

A workshop producing wooden goods for export. Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Việt Nam's GDP growth to hit 7.5 per cent for the first quarter of 2025. — VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2025 is projected to grow by nearly 8 per cent, setting the stage for sustained economic development throughout the year.

This figure is seen as crucial to meeting the Government's target of 8 per cent GDP growth for this year, according to economic experts.

Standard Chartered Bank forecasts GDP growth of 6.7 per cent for 2025. However, the bank predicts that the first half of the year will experience a stronger growth rate of 7.5 per cent. This positive outlook is driven by several key factors contributing to Việt Nam's economic dynamism.

General director of Standard Chartered Bank Việt Nam Nguyễn Thúy Hạnh said: "These factors include robust foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in the manufacturing and real estate sectors, a surge in retail sales, strong industrial production, solid export performance and a recovery in tourism."

Tourism has shown notable growth, with international tourist arrivals reaching nearly four million in the first two months of 2025, an increase of 30.2 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, industrial production also saw impressive gains, with the industrial production index (IIP) rising by 7.2 per cent in the first two months of the year, outpacing last year's 6.5 per cent increase.

Despite these positive trends, reaching the Government's 8 per cent GDP growth target remains a challenge.

The General Statistics Office notes that to meet this goal, Việt Nam’s GDP must grow by 7.7 per cent in the first quarter. Historically, GDP growth in the first quarter has been below 7 per cent in the past five years, making the 2025 target a considerable hurdle.

However, the ongoing positive momentum in industrial production and tourism suggests the country is on the right track to exceed the first quarter target, which could help build momentum for the rest of the year.

Việt Nam's GDP composition underscores the importance of consumption and investment for achieving strong economic growth. Consumption contributes 60 per cent of GDP, while investment accounts for 36.5 per cent.

In contrast, net exports - the value of exports minus the value of imports - make up just 4 per cent of GDP. This highlights the critical role of stimulating domestic consumption and investment to maintain high economic growth rates.

To achieve the targeted 8 per cent growth this year, experts emphasise the need to boost consumption and increase investment. Alongside public and FDI investments, private investment remains a key area with significant potential for growth.

Economic expert Dr Lê Xuân Nghĩa stressed that boosting private investment is essential for sustaining GDP growth.

He pointed out that the real estate sector plays a crucial role in stimulating private investment, as it attracts capital into related industries, such as construction materials, consumer goods, furniture and electrical appliances.

Opening up the real estate market is vital for the private sector to expand its investments, contributing to reaching the 8 per cent growth target.

To foster a more dynamic and robust economic environment, the Government is committed to cutting at least 30 per cent of adverse business conditions this year. This move is seen as a necessary step to boost private sector growth and enhance investment opportunities.

Experts also said that substantial institutional reforms are considered a critical breakthrough that will not only enable the economy to grow at 8 per cent in 2025, but also set the stage for double-digit growth in the future. — VNS

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