Bad debts in the banking system have continued to improve, with growth contained at around 2 per cent after surging to more than 15 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 following the expiry of a Government debt restructuring policy.

 

According to data from Việt Dragon Securities Company (VDSC), the bad debt ratio continued to inch down from 2.04 per cent in Q2 2025 to 2.01 per cent in Q3 2025.

 

The group of State-owned banks continued to affirm its role as a pillar in stabilising the banking system, with the bad debt ratio maintained at a very low level of 1-1.9 per cent. VietinBank and Vietcombank continued to maintain solid asset quality, with bad debt ratios decreasing year-on-year at 1.1 per cent and 1 per cent respectively.

 

The debt ratio of BIDV also inched down to 1.9 per cent compared to the previous quarter, but the pressure to handle bad debts of the State-owned bank in the last months of the year is still great to bring the rate back to a stable level like in previous years.

 

The group of joint stock commercial banks also recorded good credit quality control.

 

Specifically, NCB recorded a sharp decrease in total bad debt of 37.7 per cent compared to the end of 2024, equivalent to a decrease of more than VNĐ5.2 trillion.

 

The decreasing rate for ABBank and ACB was 23.3 per cent (about VNĐ860 billion) and 15.3 per cent (more than VNĐ1.3 trillion) respectively.

 

Securities companies Dragon Capital, FiinGroup and Mirae Asset forecast that bad debts in the fourth quarter of 2025 will decrease slightly or stabilise thanks to strong credit expansion and sustained profit growth. The credit growth increased by 15 per cent as of October 30 and is expected to reach 19-20 per cent by the end of the year, while profit surged by 24.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2025.

 

In 2026, analysts of the securities companies predict that the differentiation between banks will be more evident.

 

Specifically, banks with strong capital foundations, high bad debt coverage ratios and prudent loan portfolios will continue to improve asset quality.

 

Meanwhile, banks with a large proportion of real estate and bond loans will face higher debt handling pressure and the need to increase provisions.

 

The analysts believe that signs of asset quality recovery in the third quarter of 2025 and a stable forecast in the fourth quarter of 2025 show that the banking system is entering a more obvious improvement phase.

 

However, they noted, risks from real estate, bonds and debt groups that need attention cannot be completely eliminated. Maintaining reasonable provisions, strengthening asset handling and controlling concentrated risks will be the key for banks to ensure resilience and support sustainable growth in 2026.

 

According to the latest survey of the State Bank of Vietnam, credit institutions expect that the risk level will improve in 2026. They predict that the bad debt ratio will continue to decrease more sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 after a slight decrease in the third quarter of 2025. — VNS